How Many Votes To Win? About 10% Of The Population

Today is a primary election day in California with a host of races from local level to state offices and some federal races as well. California is a large state, with about 37 million residents.  However, less than half of that number are registered voters and turnout – especially in primary elections without a presidential campaign – can be low.  Below is a quick summary calculation of the current population and expected turnout for this election.

As the above shows, to win a given office a candidate would likely be able to do so with around 10% of the population voting for them.  Of course this is dependent on the turnout in a given election, how many candidates are in a race, and a number of other variables.  It does seem a relatively useful benchmark for estimating how many votes are needed in a given race to likely win.

If you live in California and haven’t voted yet please consider taking a moment and doing so.  With the increasing amount of mail-in options there has never been an easier time to vote than we have today.

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John P Anderson

I'm a Kansas native living in San Diego. I enjoy learning about environmental issues and connecting with good people that want to make the world a better place. Cheers!